Commercial property market poised for recovery in 2025
The Australian commercial property market is set for a rebound in 2025, amid changing market conditions and renewed investor interest, with core assets expected to lead the recovery.
According to Knight Frank’s Australian Horizon 2025 report, time is of the essence, and investors who acquire assets following the market adjustment, but before the recovery begins, are positioned for strong growth.
Chief economist Ben Burston highlighted the opportunities currently available in the market.
“Our central thesis is that core assets in the Australian market now represent good value for investors, with strong prospects for cyclical recovery starting in 2025 and long-term growth,” Mr Burston said.
The retail sector is experiencing its strongest investor demand since 2015, driven by improving asset performance and rising real incomes. This surge in interest is expected to contribute to a recovery in capital values due to limited available stock.
Industrial markets are showing signs of divergence, with rental performance varying significantly between regions. Sydney’s Outer West and West Melbourne face pressure from high supply levels, while South Sydney and East Melbourne demonstrate more resilient market conditions.
The office sector continues to contend with high vacancy rates, however new development slowdowns, particularly in Sydney and Brisbane, are expected to drive face rents higher on new projects.
Build-to-rent (BTR) development is gaining momentum, though its success depends heavily on policy changes and market acceptance.
“The perceived success of schemes targeting the middle of the rental range will be important in widening awareness and understanding of BTR.” Mr Burston said.
Interest rates remain a significant factor in shaping market recovery, he said.
“Investors will need to be tuned into the evolving debate on neutral rates and ensure their strategy is resilient to multiple scenarios for the level of long-term interest rates,” he said.
“Now is the time to buy, and this optimal window will extend into 2025.
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